The Future of Flu

Monday, September 27, 2010

Pelton Auditorium
Weintraub Building
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
Seattle, WA

8:30AM	Continental breakfast
8:45AM	Introduction
9:00AM	Not all pandemics are created equal Arnold Monto, University of Michigan
9:30AM	Utilizing electronic health care data for pandemic surveillance: Patterns and burden at the national, state and city level Lone Simonsen, The George Washington University
10:00AM	Epidemiology and control of pandemic H1N1 in Hong Kong Ben Cowling, The University of Hong Kong
10:30AM	Coffee break
10:45AM	The immunology of influenza Paul Thomas, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital
11:15AM	Molecular epidemiology of seasonal and pandemic influenza Martha Nelson, NIH/Fogarty International Center
11:45AM	Discussion

Sponsored by the MIDAS network (NIH/NIGMS) and the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division (FHCRC)

Flyer for the symposium (pdf)

Invited Guests

Sarah Cobey, Ben Cowling, Irene Eckstrand, Aubree Gordon, Tomer Hertz, Vladimir Minin, Arnold Monto, Martha Nelson, Lone Simonsen, Paul Thomas

Local hosts

Dennis Chao, Ira Longini, Betz Halloran, Rustom Antia

Visitor information

Fred Hutchinson campus map (includes location of the Marriott and the Silver Cloud hotels)
Paid parking is available on a first come first served basis across the street from The Hutchinson Center at the 1111 Fairview Avenue North, Diamond Parking Lot located on the West side of Fairview. There will be signs to direct you to the Symposium which is located at Pelton Auditorium in the Weintraub Building. Please do not park in the visitor spots on The Hutchinson Campus as you will be ticketed.
Light rail from Seatac airport to downtown Seattle (The light rail stop is deep inside the parking structure at the airport. Follow the signs carefully!)
Seattle Streetcar from downtown to the Hutch
King County metro transit (bus)

Open questions

There have been many studies on the evolution and phylogeny of H3N2. What lessons from H3N2 evolution can we apply to H1N1 2009?
How does antigenic drift differ in H1N1 2009 and H3N2?
Is the immune response to H1N1 2009 more or less cross-reactive than that to H3N2?
Why were older people less infected by H1N1 2009? Prior exposure or ability of the virus to infect them?
In the other major influenza pandemics this century, the pandemic strain displaced all of the seasonal strains. Is that happening now, or do we expect co-circulation with seasonal H3N2?

Relevant papers

Monto AS, Ohmit SE. Seasonal influenza vaccines: evolutions and future trends. Expert Rev Vaccines. 2009 Apr;8(4):383-9. PMID: 19348555
Cowling BJ, Chan KH, Fang VJ, Lau LL, So HC, Fung RO, Ma ES, Kwong AS, Chan CW, Tsui WW, Ngai HY, Chu DW, Lee PW, Chiu MC, Leung GM, Peiris JS. Comparative epidemiology of pandemic and seasonal influenza A in households. N Engl J Med. 2010 Jun 10;362(23):2175-84. PMID: 20558368
Viboud C, Miller M, Olson D, Osterholm M, Simonsen L. Preliminary Estimates of Mortality and Years of Life Lost Associated with the 2009 A/H1N1 Pandemic in the US and Comparison with Past Influenza Seasons. PLoS Curr Influenza. 2010 Mar 20:RRN1153. PMID: 20352125
Miller MA, Viboud C, Balinska M, Simonsen L. The signature features of influenza pandemics--implications for policy. N Engl J Med. 2009 Jun 18;360(25):2595-8. PMID: 19423872
Nelson MI, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Miller MA, Holmes EC. Phylogenetic analysis reveals the global migration of seasonal influenza A viruses. PLoS Pathog. 2007 Sep 14;3(9):1220-8. PMID: 17941707
Thomas PG, Keating R, Hulse-Post DJ, Doherty PC. Cell-mediated protection in influenza infection. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Jan;12(1):48-54. PMID: 16494717
Bedford T, Cobey S, Beerli P, Pascual M. Global migration dynamics underlie evolution and persistence of human influenza A (H3N2). PLoS Pathog. 2010 May 27;6(5):e1000918. PMID: 20523898
Koelle K, Cobey S, Grenfell B, Pascual M. Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza A (H3N2) in humans. Science. 2006 Dec 22;314(5807):1898-903. PMID: 17185596
Gordon A, Saborio S, Videa E, Lopez R, Kuan G, Balmaseda A, Harris E. Clinical attack rate and presentation of pandemic H1N1 influenza versus seasonal influenza A and B in a pediatric cohort in Nicaragua. Clin Infect Dis. 2010 Jun 1;50(11):1462-7.PMID: 20420502
Nelson M, Spiro D, Wentworth D, Beck E, Fan J, Ghedin E, Halpin R, Bera J, Hine E, Proudfoot K, Stockwell T, Lin X, Griesemer S, Kumar S, Bose M, Viboud C, Holmes E, Henrickson K. The early diversification of influenza A/H1N1pdm. PLoS Curr Influenza. 2009 Nov 3:RRN1126. PMID: 20029664
Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Schonberger LB, Arden NH, Cox NJ, Fukuda K. Pandemic versus epidemic influenza mortality: a pattern of changing age distribution. J Infect Dis. 1998 Jul;178(1):53-60. PMID: 9652423

Other important papers

Monto AS, Ansaldi F, Aspinall R, McElhaney JE, Montano LF, Nichol KL, Puig-Barbera J, Schmitt J, Stephenson I. Influenza control in the 21st century: Optimizing protection of older adults. Vaccine. 2009 Aug 13;27(37):5043-53. PMID: 19559118
Monto AS, Ohmit SE, Petrie JG, Johnson E, Truscon R, Teich E, Rotthoff J, Boulton M, Victor JC. Comparative efficacy of inactivated and live attenuated influenza vaccines. N Engl J Med. 2009 Sep 24;361(13):1260-7. PMID: 19776407
Aiello AE, Coulborn RM, Aragon TJ, Baker MG, Burrus BB, Cowling BJ, Duncan A, Enanoria W, Fabian MP, Ferng YH, Larson EL, Leung GM, Markel H, Milton DK, Monto AS, Morse SS, Navarro JA, Park SY, Priest P, Stebbins S, Stern AM, Uddin M, Wetterhall SF, Vukotich CJ Jr. Research findings from nonpharmaceutical intervention studies for pandemic influenza and current gaps in the research. Am J Infect Control. 2010 May;38(4):251-8. PMID: 20226569
Lau LL, Cowling BJ, Fang VJ, Chan KH, Lau EH, Lipsitch M, Cheng CK, Houck PM, Uyeki TM, Peiris JS, Leung GM. Viral shedding and clinical illness in naturally acquired influenza virus infections. J Infect Dis. 2010 May 15;201(10):1509-16. PMID: 20377412
Nelson MI, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Miller MA, Holmes EC. The origin and global emergence of adamantane resistant A/H3N2 influenza viruses. Virology. 2009 Jun 5;388(2):270-8. PMID: 19394063
Nelson MI, Edelman L, Spiro DJ, Boyne AR, Bera J, Halpin R, Sengamalay N, Ghedin E, Miller MA, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Holmes EC. Molecular epidemiology of A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 influenza virus during a single epidemic season in the United States. PLoS Pathog. 2008 Aug 22;4(8):e1000133. PMID: 18725925
Nelson MI, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Bennett RT, Griesemer SB, St George K, Taylor J, Spiro DJ, Sengamalay NA, Ghedin E, Taubenberger JK, Holmes EC. Multiple reassortment events in the evolutionary history of H1N1 influenza A virus since 1918. PLoS Pathog. 2008 Feb 29;4(2):e1000012. PMID: 18463694
Simonsen L, Taylor RJ, Viboud C, Miller MA, Jackson LA. Mortality benefits of influenza vaccination in elderly people: an ongoing controversy. Lancet Infect Dis. 2007 Oct;7(10):658-66. PMID: 17897608
Nelson MI, Holmes EC. The evolution of epidemic influenza. Nat Rev Genet. 2007 Mar;8(3):196-205. PMID: 17262054
Nelson MI, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Miller MA, Taylor J, George KS, Griesemer SB, Ghedin E, Sengamalay NA, Spiro DJ, Volkov I, Grenfell BT, Lipman DJ, Taubenberger JK, Holmes EC. Stochastic processes are key determinants of short-term evolution in influenza A virus. PLoS Pathog. 2006 Dec;2(12):e125. PMID: 17140286
Huber VC, Thomas PG, McCullers JA. A multi-valent vaccine approach that elicits broad immunity within an influenza subtype. Vaccine. 2009 Feb 18;27(8):1192-200. PMID: 19135117
Gordon A, Ortega O, Kuan G, Reingold A, Saborio S, Balmaseda A, Harris E. Prevalence and seasonality of influenza-like illness in children, Nicaragua, 2005-2007. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009 Mar;15(3):408-14.
Russell CA, Jones TC, Barr IG, Cox NJ, Garten RJ, Gregory V, Gust ID, Hampson AW, Hay AJ, Hurt AC, de Jong JC, Kelso A, Klimov AI, Kageyama T, Komadina N, Lapedes AS, Lin YP, Mosterin A, Obuchi M, Odagiri T, Osterhaus AD, Rimmelzwaan GF, Shaw MW, Skepner E, Stohr K, Tashiro M, Fouchier RA, Smith DJ. The global circulation of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) viruses. Science. 2008 Apr 18;320(5874):340-6. PMID: 18420927
Garten RJ, Davis CT, Russell CA, Shu B, Lindstrom S, Balish A, Sessions WM, Xu X, Skepner E, Deyde V, Okomo-Adhiambo M, Gubareva L, Barnes J, Smith CB, Emery SL, Hillman MJ, Rivailler P, Smagala J, de Graaf M, Burke DF, Fouchier RA, Pappas C, Alpuche-Aranda CM, Lopez-Gatell H, Olivera H, Lopez I, Myers CA, Faix D, Blair PJ, Yu C, Keene KM, Dotson PD Jr, Boxrud D, Sambol AR, Abid SH, St George K, Bannerman T, Moore AL, Stringer DJ, Blevins P, Demmler-Harrison GJ, Ginsberg M, Kriner P, Waterman S, Smole S, Guevara HF, Belongia EA, Clark PA, Beatrice ST, Donis R, Katz J, Finelli L, Bridges CB, Shaw M, Jernigan DB, Uyeki TM, Smith DJ, Klimov AI, Cox NJ. Antigenic and genetic characteristics of swine-origin 2009 A(H1N1) influenza viruses circulating in humans. Science. 2009 Jul 10;325(5937):197-201. PMID: 19465683